Right now, the stats sorts at Opta have calculated that Scotland have a 73.5% shot at making it out of the group. That's good, right?
Eight of the best third-placed teams will make it through, and four points would almost certainly guarantee a place in the last 32.
The problem comes if Scotland suffer a heavy defeat in Miami.
After two games, they sit on three points with a goal difference of zero. If they remain on three after the Brazil game, that will slip to -1 at best.
Of the other groups with two rounds of fixtures completed - granted there are only two of them - their third-placed teams are on just a single point.
However, both of them have to still play the team sitting bottom, meaning it may well be they finish on four points. Still with us?
History suggests that a -2 goal difference and three points might be enough for the Scots. Having said that, the expanded tournament, and the now vastly different standard of teams, may well cause havoc in predicting it.
Ultimately, Scotland are looking for the bottom seeds in each group to not win any games, but not take a tanking off the team who finishes third.